you are an idiot! this will be the reaction when people will read the title. but i am still adamant, directx will die.
sure windows is the widely used desktop and server O/s. no doubt about it. its one of the easy user frienly O/s. no doubt about it either. but the future trend shows something different in store.
directx is easy to program and feature rich graphic API. yeah yeah! opengl 3.2 already catches up with directx. directx compute can be countered by openCL. so what remains is harware tesselation. well that will be implemented in openGL soon, i am sure.
so what gives? let me explain you this simply - if you add all the devices with smart O/s, how many do you think are using directx? if i add mobiles, pda, notebooks etc this scenario changes. almost everyone is using opengl.
most popular phone - iphone, uses opengl. android is Linux based and hence uses opengl and the way its alliance is increasing, its going to be a force to reckon with. the new nokia n900 which will be the top end device by nokia uses Linux maemo and opengl. symbian o/s, also uses opengl. java has jsr support for opengl. and i just heard limo, will be launched by voadphone is also linux based and its alliance is huge too.
that doesn't make any sense. the king of desktop is windows and always will. but dear, what if the desktop doesnt remain a computer king? handheld devices and net-tops may become our computing partner?
lets just look at this trend -
Intel is pushing atom very hard, it is now selling like a hot cake. with this intel wants to invade the mobile devices where there is almost a monopoly by ARM. ARM is similarly trying to invade the net-top marked by making more powerful processors. if this trend continues then in next two years we will have very powerful mobile devices. powerful enough to challenge desktop.
and as i have mentioned earlier opengl is the choice for everyone. Intel is pushing moblin and let me tell you its the os that will dominate the net-top market. there are people who are trying to port android in net-tops. and Google is promoting its chrome OS. apple is already established as smartphone leader and is slowly eating Microsoft dominance at desktop. whats common in all of them? OPENGL.
oh i forgot the game console. who is the leader in the console market? surprise surprise! its Nintendo DSi. in the big console war Nintendo wii is the winner. both of them uses a derived opengl system.
what about Linux? well Linux is still plagued with graphic problem. but wait the future is promising. gallium 3d is being integrated and develop. huh? gallium 3d will help in doing gpgpu, 3d acceleration, 2d acceleration, video acceleration and what not. and it will be bleeding edge.
Microsoft's defence? they have realized and catching up with speed of development and feature with Microsoft mobile. windows mobile 7 should bring them closer. they are already in the console war and that is good for them too. zune was a failure but they are still at it with zune HD which will sport nvidia tegra.
Still don't believe that directx will die? well ..... neither do i. heh heh